It is a massive effort to rewrite a national fire safety code around measurable risk, explicit targets, and cost-effectiveness. But sometimes, there are great reasons to do so. In this episode, together with Gianluca De Sanctis and Sofia Kourgiantaki we take you inside Switzerland’s sweeping reform, where a new federal law sets a maximum individual risk for life safety, ties property protection to a clear marginal cost rule, and harmonises practice across cantons. Together, we trace how the framework defines acceptance criteria, builds a shared “model code” of probabilistic inputs, and keeps prescriptive pathways for standard projects—only now grounded in risk-optimised measures.

You’ll hear how the system replaces vague equivalence with transparent math. Life safety is anchored at 5×10^-5 fatalities per user per year; if a building exceeds that threshold, measures are required until it doesn’t, regardless of cost. Beyond the threshold, optimisation is driven by the marginal cost principle and a nationally defined social willingness to pay, aligning fire with flood, transport, and earthquake risk policy. For property, the rule is simple and strict: do not spend more than the expected damage you remove.

While the code was being developed, Sofia put the method to the test in a retail centre case study using Bayesian networks and ASET/RSET. The model compared detection, sprinklers, and smoke exhaust while capturing occupancy, fuel loads, growth rates, system reliability, and fire service response. The surprising result: in a seven-meter hall, detection met the life-safety target on its own, and the most cost-effective optimisation paired detection with sprinklers, while smoke exhaust added little benefit in that geometry. The lesson isn’t that one system always wins; it’s that context and data should decide, not habit.

Switzerland didn’t stop at policy. A peer-review approval process, ETH’s advanced training in probability and risk, and a national model code make the approach usable and reviewable. The reform is in technical review ahead of political approval, with mechanisms for minor updates as evidence grows.

Direct links to the document:
- German Version: https://mitwirkung-vkf.ch/de/
- French Version: https://mitwirkung-vkf.ch/fr/

Also, there are 4 short videos in German, French and Italian that describes the new framework of the new codes:
https://www.bsvonline.ch/de/brandschutzvorschriften/projekt-bsv-2026/videos

A part of this shift in culture is also the new MAS in fire at the ETH, which you can learn more about in here:
https://mas-brandschutz.ethz.ch/

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