SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan Podcast Por capa

SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan

SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan

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Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar03:34 - A strong year for trend following05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher?09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market?19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund?54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different futureCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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