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Dartmouth College's Daryl Press and George Washington University's Nicholas Anderson discuss their modeling of an outbreak of war on the Korean Peninsula, assess the balance of power between the North and South, and explore the implications for the US military alliance with South Korea.

Show Notes

• Nicolas Anderson, Daryl Press, “Lost Seoul: Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent,” Texas National Security Review Vol 8 Issue 3, Summer 2025.

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Rosemary Kelanic, Director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, discusses the Israel-Iran war, U.S. involvement, whether regime change is the objective, and the risks of escalation.

Show Notes

Rosemary Kelanic, “A U.S. War With Iran Would Be a Catastrophe ,” New York Times, June 14, 2025.

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Samuel Seitz, a fellow at MIT’s Security Studies Program, explores so-called “madman behavior” in international politics and whether it’s effective in gaining leverage in international confrontations. He explains why problems of signaling, credibility, and reassurance tend to make madman tactics ineffective and he discusses examples from the Cold War to Trump’s first and second administrations.

Show Notes

Samuel Seitz, Caitlin Talmadge, “The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work,” The Washington Quarterly 43:3, 2020.

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Christopher Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discuss the foreign policy attitudes of Gen Z, the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy, and the increasing salience of transnational issues, among other topics.

Show Notes

Christopher Chilis and Lauren Morganbesser, “What Gen Z Thinks about U.S. Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025

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Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, talks about the Trump administration’s diplomacy with Iran. He discusses the failures of the first Trump administration’s and the Biden administration’s approaches to Iran, why Trump’s second time around could lead to a new nuclear deal, Iran’s changing regional geopolitical position, and why a more peaceful US-Iran relationship serves US interests in the Middle East.

Show Notes

Trita Parsi, “Why Trump’s Iran Diplomacy May Work,” Time, April 11, 2025.

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Alexander Wendt, political scientist at Ohio State University, discusses his forthcoming book The Last Humans: UFOs & National Security, on the political and national security consequences of discovering that Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) are piloted by intelligent extra-terrestrial life. He argues that the ontological shock from this discovery risks triggering a civilizational “auto-immune reaction” of widespread disorder that could undermine the international state system and suggests possible policies and pathways to responsibly prepare for this scenario.

Show Notes

Alexander Wendt, The Last Humans: UFOs and National Security (forthcoming from Oxford University Press)

Alexander Wendt, Raymond Duvall, “Sovereignty and the UFO,” Political Theory, 36(4), 607-633.

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The Stimson Center’s Christopher Preble and Geoff Wilson argue that nuclear weapons modernization programs are wasteful boondoggles that undermine deterrence and stability while serving as a give-away to parochial interests. They discuss a “deterrence first” posture on nuclear weapons, perverse incentives in the bureaucracy, profligate waste and inefficiency, the risks of nuclear escalation, the consequences of eroding nuclear deterrence, and threat inflation on China, among other issues.

Show Notes

• Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “Gambling on Armageddon: How US Nuclear Policies are Undercutting Deterrence and Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear War,” Stimson Center Report, February 19, 2025.

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