Episódios

  • Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?

    Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?
    May 16 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will the market give another free pass to US deficits, or will the bond/USD vigilantes show up this time?
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    23 minutos
  • Recession Risks & Reflexivity

    Recession Risks & Reflexivity
    May 2 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets. To contact Alf: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg To contact Brent: ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg Podcast transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-01may25/
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    36 minutos
  • Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?!

    Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?!
    Apr 25 2025
    This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell. Want to chat with Alf? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg Want to chat with Brent? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg
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    32 minutos
  • The Bond Vigilantes Are Here

    The Bond Vigilantes Are Here
    Apr 11 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets it's almost unprecedented in the US. Want to reach out to Alf? Ping him on BBG: Alfonso Peccatiello Want to reach out to Brent? Ping him on BBG: Brent Donnelly Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10apr25/
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    37 minutos
  • You Ready For Liberation Day?

    You Ready For Liberation Day?
    Mar 28 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27mar25/
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    37 minutos
  • Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge

    Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge
    Mar 7 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX. If you want to chat with Alf, ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email to alf@palinurocapital.com If you want to chat with Brent, ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg.
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    37 minutos
  • Growth Scare: Yes or No?

    Growth Scare: Yes or No?
    Feb 28 2025
    Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not? Interested in Alf's institutional macro research? Contact him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or via alf@themacrocompass.com Interested in Brent's daily FX research reports? Contact him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or check out Spectra AM/FX
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    38 minutos
  • The Next Big Macro Trade

    The Next Big Macro Trade
    Feb 21 2025
    Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be. Want access to Alf's institutional macro research? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email at alf@themacrocompass.com Want access to Brent's research notes? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or visit https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20feb25/
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    36 minutos