Episódios

  • Gold & Cockroaches

    Gold & Cockroaches
    Oct 17 2025
    Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: TMTF Trade Of The Week In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the massive rally in precious metals: what's behind it? Is it a broad debasement theme or just a big momentum trade? And is Dimon right when he talks about more cockroaches in credit markets?
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    32 minutos
  • Buy The Bubble or Watch It Burst?

    Buy The Bubble or Watch It Burst?
    Oct 10 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the massive AI-driven rally which is beginning to have strong implications for broader markets and the economy. Brent presents the consensus view from several hedge fund PMs he met in Singapore - are they riding the bubble or afraid it's going to burst soon? And what about bonds, gold, and the USD? Get in touch with Alf via Bloomberg (ping him at Alfonso Peccatiello) or via email at alf@palinurocapital.com Get in touch with Brent via Bloomberg (ping him at Brent Donnelly) or via email at bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com
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    35 minutos
  • Cracks In The US Labor Market - What Next?

    Cracks In The US Labor Market - What Next?
    Sep 6 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the recent NFP print and its implications for markets. They also reflect on the right framework to apply to RSI and options when dealing with asset classes having skewed return distributions. To contact Alf and Brent, send a Bloomberg IB to Brent Donnelly and Alfonso Peccatiello
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    33 minutos
  • The Truth Behind Fiscal Dominance

    The Truth Behind Fiscal Dominance
    Aug 29 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the latest attempt from Trump to gain more control over the Fed, and the implications this might have on multiple asset classes. They also discuss the JPY and the political situation in France.
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    29 minutos
  • Run It Hot Hot Hot

    Run It Hot Hot Hot
    Aug 23 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the surprising Jackson Hole speech in which Powell opened up to interest rate cuts already in September. Markets are reacting strongly, but the real question is what should we expect if Trump runs the economy hot alongside a dovish Fed in 2026?
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    35 minutos
  • Is The Fed Ready To Capitulate Dovish?

    Is The Fed Ready To Capitulate Dovish?
    Aug 8 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade matters sometimes more than whether you were directionally right or wrong.
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    34 minutos
  • The Tariff Mismatch Theory

    The Tariff Mismatch Theory
    Aug 1 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the sharp USD repricing and the market positioning for a mild tariff impact on the US economy - what if we get a surprising slowdown over the next few months instead?
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    32 minutos
  • Carry & Options In A Trump World

    Carry & Options In A Trump World
    Jul 25 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the recent clashes between the Trump administration and the Fed, the more friendly deal-making stance on tariff deals, and how to use options when trying to capture convex moves and incorporate carry into your thinking.
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    37 minutos