In celebration of Oaktree’s 30th anniversary on April 10, 2025, cofounders Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), Bruce Karsh (Co-Chairman and Chief Investment Officer), and Sheldon Stone (Principal and Co-Portfolio Manager, High Yield Bonds) held a fireside chat for employees where they shared stories about Oaktree’s origins and the firm’s journey over the last three decades. We’re excited to share an excerpt from their conversation.

In his latest memo, Howard discusses how the recent events surrounding tariffs can have a seismic but unpredictable impact on the global economy. Seismic in that they reflect a fundamental undoing of longstanding norms, and unpredictable in that tariffs would bring untold second- and third-order consequences. He emphasizes that there is no foreknowledge here, with forecasts even less likely to be accurate than usual. Howard considers the response of the financial markets, highlighting the key question regards the appropriateness of the market reaction thus far: has it been just right, excessive, or inadequate?

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again).

In his latest memo, Howard addresses a common question he’s been receiving over the last few months: “What about credit spreads?” He explains that the key question should be whether today’s spread is sufficient to offset the credit losses that’ll occur, rather than whether it’s historically narrow or not. Further, he emphasizes that spread widening is a short-term phenomenon and expresses his belief that the elevated yield offered by credit presents a better deal than equities, even at today’s spreads.