As the 2025/2026 barrels towards the finish line, Matt is joined by Breakdown fave Sam Eckmann (Gold Derby) to discuss how this year’s Tony race has changed. From a surprisingly thin Best Musical field to a hyper-competitive Play Revival race, they explore how industry sentiment, voter behavior, and late-season openings could reshape the narrative in the final stretch. If you think you know where the Tonys are headed… think again.

Important LinksRevue-ing the 2025/2026 Season: Green Room 42 Tix

The (Slightly Early) Tony Awards Show: Green Room 42 Tix

Sam Eckmann: Gold Derby

Broadway Breakdown: Discord

Broadway Breakdown: Substack

Guest bioSam Eckmann is an awards expert and contributor at Gold Derby, where he covers Broadway, film, and television races with a sharp eye for trends and voter psychology. A frequent Tony Awards predictor, Sam brings both data-driven insight and deep theater knowledge to the Broadway Breakdown universe.

Timestamps

* 0:00 – Intro + framing the 2026 Tony race

* 2:00 – Best Musical: a weak frontrunner year?

* 6:00 – Why Two Strangers leads—but isn’t unbeatable

* 9:00 – The “original score vs. jukebox” debate

* 14:00 – Musical Revival showdown: Ragtime vs. Cats: The Jellicle Ball

* 29:00 – Play Revival: the most competitive category of the season

* 40:00 – Lead Actor (Play): crowded field, shifting frontrunners

* 45:00 – Director (Musical): why this race is wide open

* 50:00 – Will The Queen of Versailles still show up on nomination morning?

* 1:00:00 – Can comedy win? The Titanique question

* 1:08:00 – Lead Actress (Play): stacked, messy, unpredictable

* 1:14:00 – Final predictions in flux + shows to watch before nominations

* 1:18:00 – Closing thoughts + diva send-off

Listener discussion questions

* In a year with no clear Best Musical juggernaut, should voters prioritize originality, impact, or long-term viability when choosing a winner?

* Do you think Tony voters consciously avoid rewarding jukebox musicals—or is that narrative overstated?

* Which category feels most unpredictable to you this season, and what would genuinely surprise you on nomination morning?